Business Valuations Must Look to the Future, Not the Past

Historical financial performance is just one piece of the business valuation puzzle. While it provides a starting point, its relevance depends on whether the business is expected to achieve similar results in the future.

High interest rates, restricted access to credit, global trade uncertainties, tax policy ambiguity and geopolitical instability have significantly altered the business landscape. Experienced valuation pros understand that relying on historical financial performance — without adjustments for current and anticipated conditions — can lead to inaccurate value conclusions.

Beyond the Status Quo

The last three to five years of financial statements are usually on the list of documents experts use to value a business. In relatively stable economic times, those trends could be extrapolated forward, applying a steady long-term growth rate. But in today's dynamic climate, such assumptions can be misleading.

Consider capacity limitations. A larger facility or additional equipment may be needed going forward to achieve an expected growth rate. Alternatively, if a decline is expected, a smaller facility, salary cuts and layoffs can help preserve cash flow over the long run.

Often, management creates budgets and forecasts for internal planning purposes. These documents can provide insight into the company's expected cash flow by highlighting emerging opportunities and threats. But they also need to account for major changes in operations. If they don't, management's estimates can introduce significant bias or error into the valuation process.

Current Market Conditions

In every business valuation assignment, the expert considers internal and external factors that may impact value. External changes that businesses are dealing with today include:

• ‍High interest rates and tight credit. The Federal Reserve has maintained historically high interest rates, with the federal funds rate above 5% in early 2025. This increases the cost of capital and makes debt financing less accessible, particularly for small and midsize businesses.‍
• Tax policy uncertainty. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is set to expire after 2025 unless Congress passes legislation to extend or modify it. The potential return of higher tax rates on pass-through entities and limits on certain deductions could adversely affect cash flows and valuations. However, if future legislation makes the TCJA provisions permanent or introduces new tax incentives, businesses may enjoy reduced tax burdens, boosting after-tax cash flow and enterprise value. Valuators must take a balanced approach, reflecting both favorable and unfavorable tax law developments.‍
• Pending tariffs and geopolitical risk. Rising tensions in global trade and potential new tariffs can affect input costs, customer demand, supply chains and profit margins. Businesses with international exposure face added valuation complexity.‍
• Regulatory rollbacks. If the current administration pursues deregulation initiatives, certain sectors, such as manufacturing, financial services, energy and technology, may benefit from reduced compliance costs and new growth opportunities.‍
• Technological changes. Businesses investing in advanced technology or automation could see efficiency gains that positively impact value. However, the threat of cyberattacks must also be considered.‍
• M&A activity. Private equity firms and strategic buyers have ample capital and are actively pursuing high-quality acquisitions despite market volatility.  

Factoring Change into the Valuation Equation

Valuators may use scenario planning, sensitivity analysis and real-time risk assessments to account for shifting market conditions. Key questions they consider include:

• How will anticipated changes affect the subject company's earnings and cash flows?
• What risk mitigation strategies is management implementing?
• How does management plan to capitalize on market opportunities?
• Do industry trends and competitive dynamics support or challenge future performance?

This level of analysis requires technical modeling and a deep understanding of the business and its environment. For example, the answers to these questions may affect discount and capitalization rates used in the income approach, the selection of guideline transactions when applying the market approach, and discounts for lack of control and marketability.

Resiliency and Foresight Matter

Valuing a business is always a complex task, but it becomes even more challenging in uncertain times. A business's ability to withstand economic shocks and adapt to changing market conditions is a critical factor in determining its value. Contact us to arrive at a reliable value conclusion that addresses the complexities of today's markets.